Introduction
Cryptocurrency has rapidly evolved from a technological novelty to a significant financial asset class. Defined as a tradable digital form of money existing solely online, it utilizes encryption to secure transactions. Bitcoin, established in 2009, pioneered this space, moving beyond earlier attempts like e-gold and Liberty Reserve. Today, thousands of cryptocurrencies exist, supported by blockchain technology—a decentralized network of computers. Proponents often view them as keys to a more equitable economic future.
The academic and investment communities increasingly examine cryptocurrencies through two primary lenses: long-term investment and short-term speculation. This bibliometric review study analyzes the existing scholarly literature to map these research trends, focusing exclusively on the financial implications of cryptocurrencies as assets, rather than their technological or legal dimensions.
Understanding Cryptocurrency Investment and Speculation
Investing in cryptocurrency involves purchasing digital assets with the expectation of long-term value appreciation based on their underlying technology, adoption rate, and utility. Speculation, conversely, focuses on profiting from short-term price fluctuations driven by market sentiment, news, and trends.
The allure of high returns, a liquid market, and the potential for rapid growth have drawn many towards cryptocurrency. However, this market is characterized by extreme volatility, where values can double or halve within days. While this presents opportunities, it also introduces significant risk. The market remains largely unregulated, exposing participants to potential fraud, security breaches, and the risk of assets becoming illiquid.
A defining feature is the anonymity of transactions, allowing individuals to trade without direct links to traditional banking systems. This privacy, however, also associates cryptocurrencies with security risks and potential illicit activities, adding layers of complexity for investors and regulators alike.
Methodology of the Bibliometric Review
This analysis employed a rigorous bibliometric approach to map the scholarly landscape. Data was extracted from the Scopus database, focusing on English-language articles published from 2012 onward. The search criteria targeted documents containing "cryptocurrency," "Ethereum," or "Bitcoin" alongside "investment" or "speculation" in their titles, abstracts, or keywords.
The analysis utilized two powerful tools: Biblioshiny, a web-based interface for the Bibliometrix R-package, and VOSViewer software. These tools enabled both performance analysis and science mapping. Performance analysis assessed the impact of research constituents using metrics like citation counts. Science mapping revealed the intellectual structure of the field through techniques like co-citation analysis, bibliographic coupling, and co-word analysis, visualizing relationships between authors, countries, institutions, and topics.
Key Findings from the Bibliometric Analysis
Annual Scientific Production and Growth
The research output on cryptocurrency as an investment or speculative vehicle has seen explosive growth, particularly from 2019 onwards. This surge reflects the asset class's rising prominence in global financial discourse and its increasing adoption by both retail and institutional investors.
Subject Area Distribution
The research is highly interdisciplinary but dominated by specific fields. Economics, econometrics, and finance lead, accounting for nearly 30% of the publications. This is followed by business, management, and accounting (14.6%), and computer science (14.04%). Significant contributions also come from engineering, mathematics, social sciences, and even fields like energy and environmental science, illustrating the broad impact of cryptocurrency research.
Leading Countries and Institutions
Geographically, the United Kingdom, Australia, China, and the United States emerged as the most influential contributors in terms of citation counts and robust collaboration networks. Asian nations are also emerging as potent research hubs.
At an institutional level, the DCU Business School at Dublin City University, Ireland, ranked highest, followed by the Trinity Business School at Trinity College Dublin. European institutions, particularly in Ireland and France, are conducting extensive, high-impact research in this domain.
Prominent Journals and Authors
Key journals publishing high-cited research on this topic include Finance Research Letters, Economics Letters, International Review of Financial Analysis, and Research in International Business and Finance.
Leading authors, based on publication volume, H-index, and total citations, are E. Bouri, D. Roubaud, and S. Corbet. Their collaborative networks are also well-established, indicating strong research partnerships focused on cryptocurrency markets.
Trending Research Topics and Themes
The analysis of keywords reveals the evolution of research focus. Base themes consistently include "cryptocurrency," "Bitcoin," and "investments." Over time, research has expanded to cover crucial associated issues like:
- Volatility: Analyzing the extreme price swings characteristic of the market.
- Portfolio Diversification: Studying crypto's role in optimizing investment portfolios.
- Hedging & Safe Havens: Investigating whether assets like Bitcoin can act as a hedge against inflation or market downturns, especially during events like the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Spillover Effects: Understanding how volatility in crypto markets affects other financial assets.
- Blockchain & Ethereum: Exploring the underlying technology and other major cryptocurrencies.
- Investor Attention: Measuring how online search trends and social media influence prices.
The COVID-19 pandemic notably became a frequent keyword, highlighting research into the pandemic's effect on cryptocurrency markets. Furthermore, research into the criminological aspects of cryptocurrency, such as its use in money laundering, has gained traction.
Implications for Investors and the Market
The bibliometric trends underscore that the academic community largely treats cryptocurrency as a high-risk, speculative asset rather than a stable long-term investment. The predominant research on volatility, speculative bubbles, and short-term trading strategies supports this view.
For investors, this emphasizes the necessity of caution. The market's immaturity, regulatory uncertainty, and price volatility make it unsuitable for risk-averse individuals or those seeking capital preservation. The research suggests that while profitable short-term gains are possible, they come with commensurate risk. 👉 Explore more strategies for navigating volatile markets
A common recommendation from the literature is the practice of regular portfolio rebalancing for those who choose to allocate a portion of their capital to cryptocurrencies, to manage risk and potentially lock in gains.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main difference between investing in and speculating on cryptocurrency?
Investing typically implies a long-term belief in the fundamental value and future utility of a cryptocurrency, based on its technology and adoption. Speculation involves seeking profit from short-term price movements driven by market trends, news, and sentiment, with less focus on long-term value.
Which countries are leading in cryptocurrency investment research?
The United Kingdom, Australia, China, and the United States are the front-runners in terms of research output, citation impact, and academic collaboration networks. European institutions, particularly in Ireland and France, are also highly influential.
What are the most common risks associated with cryptocurrency speculation?
The most prominent risks include extreme price volatility, the potential for speculative bubbles, lack of regulatory oversight, security vulnerabilities on exchanges, illiquidity of smaller coins, and the association of the ecosystem with illicit activities.
Has academic research focused more on investment or speculation?
The bibliometric analysis reveals a stronger research focus on the speculative aspects of cryptocurrency, such as volatility, short-term price prediction, and market inefficiencies. There is comparatively less research treating it as a stable long-term investment asset.
How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect cryptocurrency research?
The COVID-19 pandemic became a significant keyword and research theme. Studies explored how the pandemic-induced economic uncertainty and market shifts impacted cryptocurrency prices, their correlation with traditional assets, and their perceived role as a hedge or safe haven.
What tools are used to perform a bibliometric analysis like this one?
This study utilized specialized software tools including Biblioshiny (a web interface for the Bibliometrix R-package) for performance analysis and VOSViewer for creating scientific maps and visualizing complex bibliometric data networks. 👉 View real-time market analysis tools
Conclusion
This bibliometric review provides a comprehensive map of academic research on cryptocurrency as an investment or speculative vehicle. The field has grown exponentially, driven by the asset's increasing financial significance. Key trends highlight a focus on its volatile and speculative nature, its relationships with other financial assets, and its response to global events like the COVID-19 pandemic.
The research consistently points to cryptocurrency being a high-risk asset class. While it offers potential for substantial short-term gains, its characteristics make it unsuitable for traditional long-term, risk-averse investment strategies. The academic consensus, derived from analyzing the most cited and influential studies, advises a cautious approach. For investors, understanding this distinction is crucial for navigating the complex and exciting world of digital assets.