Bitcoin has captured global attention as a revolutionary force in finance. However, its journey has been far from smooth. Since its inception, Bitcoin has faced skepticism and outright dismissal from critics worldwide.
Despite this, it has not only survived but thrived, growing from a niche tech topic to a globally recognized asset. This article explores Bitcoin's resilience through its many proclaimed "deaths" and estimates how many people currently hold it.
The 433rd "Death" of Bitcoin
According to data from the blockchain news site 99Bitcoins, Bitcoin had been declared "dead" by various critics 433 times as of November 15, 2021.
The first recorded obituary for Bitcoin appeared on December 15, 2010. An underground economist argued that Bitcoin's only value was its novelty, claiming it would soon become irrelevant. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at just $0.23.
From 2010 to 2013, Bitcoin remained a niche interest, receiving only 8 such obituaries. Between 2014 and 2016, as its price fluctuated within a few hundred dollars, the average number of annual obituaries rose to between 28 and 39.
The year 2017 marked a significant shift. Bitcoin became a major investment trend, attracting substantial capital and entering a powerful bull market. As its price surpassed $10,000, criticism escalated. Prominent voices from Forbes, CNN, The Washington Post, and Yahoo Finance joined the chorus of skeptics.
When Bitcoin reached $11,831, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan compared it to worthless colonial-era currency. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman also expressed bearish views when the price hit $17,640. That year, Bitcoin received 124 obituaries—3.4 times the previous year's count.
In 2018, even billionaires like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett publicly criticized Bitcoin. Buffett's description of Bitcoin as "rat poison squared" and his business partner Charlie Munger calling it a "noxious poison" are still quoted today.
Despite over 400 obituaries, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Its value and adoption have continued to grow, and it now boasts a market capitalization exceeding one trillion dollars, ranking it among the top five global assets.
How Many People Own Bitcoin Globally?
Recent research provides insight into Bitcoin's adoption. According to a Pew Research Center survey published this year, approximately 16% of Americans have invested in, traded, or used Bitcoin. This number jumps to 31% among adults aged 18 to 29.
The survey also examined familiarity with Bitcoin. About 24% of respondents stated they had heard "a lot" about Bitcoin and digital assets, while 62% had heard "a little." Only 13% reported knowing nothing at all.
For comparison, a similar Pew Research survey in 2015 found that just 1% of Americans had invested in Bitcoin. At that time, 48% had never even heard of it.
Data from major exchanges also supports growing adoption. Coinbase's Q3 report revealed 73 million registered users, a increase of 5 million from the previous quarter. While Coinbase serves around 100 countries, the Pew data suggests the 16% figure for U.S. involvement is reasonable.
Other countries show significant adoption rates. By the end of 2020, over 5% of the U.K. population—roughly 3.4 million people—owned Bitcoin. In South Korea, Bitcoin investors reached 5.09 million by January 2018, representing two-thirds of the country's stock market investors at that time.
Estimating Global Adoption with the Diffusion of Innovation Curve
The Diffusion of Innovation model helps contextualize these numbers. This theory divides adopters into five groups:
- Innovators (2.5%)
- Early Adopters (13.5%)
- Early Majority (34%)
- Late Majority (34%)
- Laggards (16%)
Based on this model, the U.K. appears to be in the "Early Adopters" phase. The U.S. and South Korea seem to be transitioning into the "Early Majority" phase.
However, these countries have more developed cryptocurrency infrastructures. To estimate global adoption, consider the world's total population of 7.875 billion and internet users of 5.053 billion. If we assume there are 100 million digital asset investors globally, the penetration rate is 1.98% among internet users and 1.28% of the total population. This suggests the global population is still in the "Innovators" stage.
The crucial tipping point lies between the Early Adopters and the Early Majority, at roughly 16% adoption. As technology accelerates, the time needed to move from slow growth to rapid adoption is shortening. Global internet user penetration rose from 16% in 2005 to 64% today. This rapid growth suggests Bitcoin's journey into the mainstream may be on a similar, accelerated path.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many times has Bitcoin been declared dead?
As tracked by 99Bitcoins, Bitcoin had been declared dead 433 times by November 2021. These pronouncements come from economists, major media outlets, and prominent investors, yet Bitcoin has continued to grow.
What percentage of Americans own Bitcoin?
Recent survey data indicates that about 16% of Americans have invested in, traded, or used Bitcoin. Adoption is significantly higher among younger adults, with 31% of those aged 18-29 participating.
Which countries have the highest Bitcoin adoption rates?
Based on available data, South Korea and the United States show some of the highest levels of adoption, potentially entering the "Early Majority" phase. Other countries with significant crypto infrastructure also report growing user bases.
Is Bitcoin adoption still growing?
Yes, multiple data points indicate growth. Exchange user numbers are increasing, and public awareness surveys show a dramatic rise in familiarity and ownership compared to just a few years ago.
What is the Diffusion of Innovation Curve?
This model describes how new ideas and technologies spread through a population. It segments people into five groups based on their willingness to adopt innovations, from the first 2.5% of Innovators to the final 16% of Laggards.
When will Bitcoin become mainstream?
Mainstream adoption is generally considered to begin at the 16% adoption threshold (combining Innovators and Early Adopters). While some nations are approaching this, global adoption is lower. However, technological adoption is accelerating, potentially shortening this timeline.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's path is a testament to its resilience. Despite countless predictions of its demise, it has evolved into a major financial asset. While estimating global ownership is challenging due to Bitcoin's anonymous nature, available data points toward steady and increasing adoption.
The chorus of criticism will likely continue. Yet, if history is any guide, these voices will do little to halt the continued growth and integration of Bitcoin into the global financial landscape.