Standard Chartered has reinforced its highly optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, projecting that the digital asset could surge to $135,000 by the third quarter of 2025 and reach an impressive $200,000 by the end of the year. This forecast comes from a recent analysis led by Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at the financial institution.
Kendrick emphasizes that the current market cycle is breaking from historical patterns. Previous Bitcoin halving events—such as those in 2016 and 2020—were typically followed by significant price corrections approximately 18 months later. However, this cycle appears fundamentally different due to substantial institutional involvement.
The April 2024 halving reduced miner rewards, an event that has historically triggered short-term price pullbacks. This time, however, persistent demand from corporate treasury purchases and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows may outweigh traditional post-halving volatility.
While some price fluctuations are expected in late Q3 and early Q4, Kendrick believes the overall bullish trend remains strong, supported by new market dynamics absent in earlier cycles.
ETF and Corporate Demand Drive Market Optimism
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite occasional short-term outflows. For instance, net outflows of $342.3 million were recorded on July 1st, ending a 15-day inflow streak. However, these outflows represent only about 7% of the total $4.8 billion that flowed into these funds recently.
In the second quarter alone, corporate treasury acquisitions and ETF purchases accounted for approximately 245,000 BTC. Analysts project this trend will continue throughout the coming quarters, providing consistent buying pressure.
On-chain metrics further support the bullish narrative. The 1-Year Active Supply metric has not yet declined, indicating that long-term holders continue to accumulate Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the 30-Day Active Supply remains subdued, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a phase of speculative euphoria—even with Bitcoin trading above $100,000.
These technical indicators imply that the market is still in an accumulation phase, with potential for further upward movement.
The 1-Year Active Supply has not yet shown signs of decline, meaning there is still room for accumulation.
Meanwhile, the 30-Day Active Supply, which typically measures short-term excitement, has not reached high levels.
Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Exceed 848,000 BTC
Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, with 51 corporations now holding a combined total of over 848,000 BTC. While most companies hold relatively small amounts, nine firms possess more than 10,000 BTC each.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains the dominant corporate holder, with 597,325 BTC, firmly aligning its stock performance with Bitcoin's price movements. New entrants like Twenty One (XXI) and Metaplanet Japan have also rapidly built significant positions, acquiring 37,230 BTC and 12,897 BTC, respectively, in 2025 alone.
This growing corporate involvement reflects a broader shift in how institutions view Bitcoin—not only as a speculative asset but also as a legitimate treasury reserve. Many investors now treat shares of these Bitcoin-heavy companies as proxies for direct Bitcoin investment.
The increasing institutional ownership and sustained ETF demand signify a maturation in Bitcoin’s adoption curve. While more companies are entering the space, only a few have made substantial commitments, suggesting that further institutional adoption could drive additional momentum.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is driving Bitcoin’s price toward $200,000?
Strong institutional demand through spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases is providing sustained buying pressure. These factors, combined with reduced selling pressure from long-term holders, are creating a bullish supply-demand imbalance.
How does the halving event affect Bitcoin’s price?
Historically, halvings reduce the rate of new Bitcoin supply, which can lead to price increases if demand remains strong. This cycle is unique because institutional demand appears to be overshadowing the typical post-halving volatility.
Are Bitcoin ETFs a safe way to gain exposure?
Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated and accessible means for investors to gain exposure without holding the asset directly. However, like all investments, they carry market risk and should be considered within a diversified portfolio.
What does active supply data indicate?
Low 30-Day Active Supply suggests limited short-term selling interest, while steady 1-Year Active Supply indicates continued accumulation by long-term investors. Both metrics currently support a bullish outlook.
Which companies hold the most Bitcoin?
MicroStrategy is the largest corporate holder, with over 597,000 BTC. Other significant holders include Twenty One and Metaplanet Japan, both of which have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin in 2025.
Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin?
While Bitcoin has already seen significant appreciation, many analysts believe institutional adoption is still in its early stages. As with any investment, thorough research and risk assessment are essential.