The cryptocurrency market exhibited general stability on Thursday as traders digested positive macroeconomic data and evaluated their portfolio allocations. Major assets mostly experienced narrow price fluctuations.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin saw a modest increase of 0.4%, trading near $109,800 after briefly touching a high of $110,590. Ethereum, following a period of sideways movement, climbed above $2,590, though uncertainty remains regarding its future trajectory.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, nearly all assets experienced single-digit percentage movements. The sole exception was Bonk, a meme coin within the Solana ecosystem, which surged by 10% during the same period.
Positive Macroeconomic Backdrop
In traditional markets, robust U.S. labor data provided a tailwind for equities. The U.S. Department of Labor reported the addition of 147,000 non-farm payrolls in June, significantly surpassing market expectations of 110,000 and also exceeding May's revised figure of 144,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.3%, demonstrating the economy's resilience despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 75 points (0.17%), the S&P 500 gained 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 0.62% increase. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.334%, indicating that investor expectations for near-term rate cuts had diminished, which tempered further stock market gains.
Furthermore, initial jobless claims for the previous week fell to 233,000, below the forecast of 240,000. The four-week moving average for initial claims also declined to 241,500. This data underscores ongoing strength in the labor market, leading traders to widely anticipate that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate within the 4.25%-4.5% range for a longer duration.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis: Is Another Rally Imminent?
Bitcoin's current price of $109,781, coupled with its slight daily gain, demonstrates cautious strength. Notably, BTC recently broke above the resistance of a bearish channel (marked by a yellow line on some charts) for the first time in 39 days, briefly surpassing $110,500 and setting a new cycle high of $111,814.
The daily chart reveals a market in a delicate balance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 60, indicating healthy bullish momentum without entering overbought territory (above 70). This level suggests Bitcoin has room to advance before facing significant profit-taking pressure. Traders often view an RSI reading between 50 and 70 as a "sweet spot" for a continued uptrend.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 12 suggests the market is in a consolidation phase, where neither bulls nor bears have established decisive control. This condition often precedes a period of significant price volatility.
The configuration of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) paints a clear bullish picture, particularly for longer-term traders, with the 50-day EMA positioned above the 200-day EMA. This structure typically indicates sustained buying pressure and a healthy market foundation.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is显示 "on," hinting that volatility is being compressed. A release from this squeeze could trigger explosive price movement in either direction. For those looking to monitor these complex signals in real-time, sophisticated charting platforms are essential. 👉 Explore advanced market analysis tools
Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $108,000 (a psychological level and recent consolidation zone)
- Strong Support: $104,000 (convergence point of the 50-day EMA)
- Immediate Resistance: $110,000 (a psychological barrier)
- Strong Resistance: $112,000 (approaching the recent cycle high)
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis: Can It Overcome Technical Hurdles?
Ethereum registered a minor gain today, trading at $2,592 after recovering from a daily low of $2,374 yesterday.
Its RSI reading of 57 places it in a neutral zone, potentially setting the stage for a new leg up. The ADX reading of 12 reflects ongoing consolidation but also suggests the market could be gathering energy for its next significant move.
A notable technical development on the chart is the presence of a "death cross," where the 50-day EMA lies below the 200-day EMA. Despite this often-bearish signal, today's price action suggests buyers are gradually stepping in. If this momentum continues, it could pave the way for a bullish crossover.
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's Squeeze Momentum Indicator is显示 "on." Coupled with today's breakout attempt, this indicates that ETH might be in the early stages of a volatility expansion.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $2,500 (a psychological price point)
- Strong Support: $2,400 (the recent swing low)
- Immediate Resistance: $2,700 (the region of the 50-day EMA)
- Strong Resistance: $2,900 (the convergence area of the 200-day EMA)
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the RSI tell us about Bitcoin's current trend?
An RSI of 60 for Bitcoin indicates healthy bullish momentum without being overbought. This suggests there is potential for further price appreciation before traders might start taking profits en masse, as readings between 50 and 70 are often considered ideal for a continued uptrend.
Why is the ADX important for cryptocurrency traders?
The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures the strength of a trend, not its direction. A low ADX value, like the current reading of 12, signals a weak trend or a consolidation phase. This helps traders understand that the market is building energy and that a strong directional move, either up or down, could be imminent.
What is a "death cross" and is it always bearish for Ethereum?
A "death cross" occurs when a shorter-term moving average (like the 50-day EMA) crosses below a longer-term moving average (like the 200-day EMA). It is traditionally viewed as a bearish signal. However, it is a lagging indicator. Its presence during a potential price recovery, as seen with Ethereum, can sometimes be overcome by strong buying pressure and shifting market sentiment.
How does the Squeeze Momentum Indicator work?
This indicator identifies periods of low volatility (the squeeze) which are typically followed by periods of high volatility (the release). When the indicator is "on," it means volatility is compressed and building. A subsequent "off" signal can precede a significant price breakout, making it a valuable tool for anticipating major moves.
What impact did the strong U.S. jobs report have on crypto markets?
The strong jobs data suggests a resilient economy, which is generally positive for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, it also reduced the immediate likelihood of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. This creates a mixed environment where good economic news supports market sentiment but also implies that capital will not become cheaper in the near term.
Where are the key support levels if Bitcoin's price corrects?
The most immediate support level is around $108,000, which is both a psychological level and a recent consolidation zone. A more significant support floor sits near $104,000, which aligns with the 50-day exponential moving average, a level often defended by buyers during bullish trends.