After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,000, selling pressure has noticeably eased as long-term holders have begun to re-accumulate coins instead of distributing them. The market is now consolidating just below its peak, with investor behavior shifting toward holding rather than profit-taking. At the same time, the surprise approval of the first U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs catalyzed a 20% price surge for ETH, signaling renewed institutional interest in major digital assets.
Market Resilience and Consolidation
Despite sideways movement since March, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown remarkable strength following their record-breaking rallies. This resilience is particularly evident when comparing the current cycle to previous bull markets, such as the 2015-17 period.
Back then, Bitcoin was in its early stages as an asset class, with no derivatives available for analysis. Today’s market structure, however, is largely spot-driven—a fact underscored by the substantial inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. These financial instruments have introduced a new dynamic, attracting traditional capital and reducing volatility during downturns.
Ethereum has also demonstrated improved market structure, with shallower drawdowns since the FTX collapse. Still, its recovery has lagged behind Bitcoin’s, reflected in a weakening ETH/BTC ratio. The recent approval of spot Ethereum ETFs may serve as a catalyst to reverse this trend and stimulate stronger relative performance.
👉 Explore more market analysis tools
When examining Bitcoin’s performance across weekly, monthly, and quarterly timeframes, the asset has delivered strong returns of 3.3%, 7.4%, and 25.6%, respectively. Yet, compared to previous cycles, the number of days with gains exceeding 20% across all three time windows remains low—only five days last quarter, versus 18–26 in earlier bull markets. This suggests a more cautious and stable advance.
ETF Flows: From Outflows to Renewed Demand
March saw Bitcoin hit $73,000, triggering significant distribution by long-term holders. This selling pressure led to a supply overhang and a subsequent corrective phase. By April, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows, with daily withdrawals reaching as high as $148 million as prices dipped toward $57,500.
However, this proved temporary. By the second-to-last week of May, daily net inflows surged to $242 million, signaling a powerful return of buyer demand. To put this in perspective, the buying pressure from ETFs is nearly eight times the daily selling pressure from miners post-halving (around $32 million per day). This highlights the overwhelming influence of ETF flows compared to changes in Bitcoin’s native issuance.
Return to the Euphoria Phase
The percentage of circulating supply in profit offers valuable insight into market cycles. Early in a bull run, this figure typically surpasses 90%, marking the pre-euphoria phase. This threshold often tempts long-term holders to realize gains after enduring bear market volatility.
Once new all-time highs are reached, the market enters the euphoria phase, where the supply in profit tends to fluctuate around 90% for 6–12 months. Currently, 93.4% of Bitcoin supply is in profit—a sign that the market is in the early stages of this phase, which began about 2.5 months ago.
Another way to gauge market health is by assessing the magnitude of unrealized losses near price peaks. These losses often belong to “local top buyers” who entered during rallies. The current cycle’s drawdowns resemble those of the 2015-17 bull market, indicating that investors have largely avoided overpaying during peaks, which supports continued strength.
Diamond Hands Regain Control
As prices climb, the selling pressure from long-term holders becomes increasingly significant. The MVRV ratio for this cohort—which measures their average unrealized profit—has historically ranged between 1.5 and 3.5 during bull-bear transitions. If the rally continues, these profits could expand further, increasing the incentive to sell.
In March, as Bitcoin approached new highs, long-term holders began distributing assets at a peak rate of 519,000 BTC per month. About 20% of this selling came from Grayscale ETF holders. Since then, however, the trend has reversed. Long-term holders are now accumulating again, with net supply increasing by around 12,000 BTC per month.
👉 Get advanced market insights
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rally to $73,000 marked a psychological and financial milestone. The subsequent decline in selling pressure—and the return to accumulation by long-term holders—suggests underlying confidence in further upside. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have reversed from negative to strongly positive, reflecting robust institutional demand.
Moreover, the SEC’s approval of spot Ethereum ETFs has leveled the playing field between the two leading cryptocurrencies, reinforcing digital assets’ place within the traditional financial ecosystem. This regulatory milestone represents significant progress for the industry and sets the stage for broader adoption.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin?
Long-term holders are investors who retain their assets for extended periods. When they accumulate, it typically signals belief in future price appreciation and reduces immediate selling pressure, contributing to market stability.
How do spot ETF flows impact Bitcoin’s price?
Significant net inflows into spot ETFs indicate strong demand from institutional and individual investors. This buying pressure can outweigh selling from miners or short-term traders, driving prices upward.
Why is the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs significant?
It provides a regulated way for traditional investors to gain exposure to ETH without holding the asset directly. This legitimizes Ethereum and will likely attract substantial new capital into the ecosystem.
What is the MVRV ratio?
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the realized cap (the value of all coins at the time they were last moved). It helps assess whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
How does miner selling pressure compare to ETF buying pressure?
Post-halving, miners sell approximately $32 million worth of Bitcoin daily. Recently, ETF inflows have reached $242 million per day— nearly eight times higher, highlighting their market impact.
What phase of the market cycle are we in currently?
The market is in the early euphoria phase, characterized by new all-time highs, high unrealized profits, and increased public interest. This phase often precedes a cycle peak but can last several months.