The emergence of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) from the original Bitcoin blockchain demonstrated that the successful activation of SegWit2X (the New York Agreement) was not the end of the scaling debate. Instead, it marked the beginning of a period of fragmentation for Bitcoin.
On August 1st, ViaBTC mined the first block of the new chain, and Bitcoin Cash officially split from the main Bitcoin blockchain. As the planned 2X hard fork approaches, debates over whether to support SegWit2X have intensified. Exchanges have taken different stances, mining pools have shifted their hashrate, and another Bitcoin split seems inevitable. Additionally, a new fork called Bitcoin Gold (BTG), aimed at combating mining centralization, has recently entered the scene.
Amid this complexity, many are left wondering: what exactly is the relationship between BTC, BCH, S2X, and BTG?
The Catalyst: Segregated Witness
Segregated Witness (SegWit) was long a focal point in Bitcoin’s scaling debates. From a technical perspective, SegWit is an innovative solution that fixes transaction malleability and effectively increases block capacity by moving transaction signatures to a new data structure.
However, supporters of larger blocks argued that adding SegWit to Bitcoin’s core protocol violated Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision. As a result, BCH developers removed SegWit from the Core codebase and increased the block size to 8MB. To guard against low hashrate, they implemented an Emergency Difficulty Adjustment (EDA) algorithm.
Since its creation, Bitcoin Cash has faced challenges—most notably, its difficulty adjustment mechanism. Fluctuations in mining profitability have led to hashrate frequently switching between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, causing inconsistent block confirmation times.
The BCH development community has announced a hard fork scheduled for November 13 to address these issues. If the 2X hard fork succeeds, BCH may remain as a secondary chain or “shadow chain.” If it fails, BCH could become the main alternative for large-block supporters.
The Hard Fork: SegWit2X
According to the New York Agreement, the 2MB hard fork is scheduled to occur at block height 485218, around November. However, the debate between Core developers and mining pools has intensified, making the outcome uncertain.
How should “success” be defined for this hard fork?
- Consensus Achievement
If success is defined by consensus, then the 2X hard fork initially succeeded when 85% of the community signaled support. However, support has since declined, with over 27% of initial supporters withdrawing. Achieving renewed consensus appears unlikely. - Hashrate Support
The SegWit2X development team stipulated that the hard fork would require more than 75% of the hashrate for three months. Current data shows support hovering around 85%, but key mining pools have withdrawn support. The outcome remains unpredictable. - Clean Chain Split
The minimum definition of success is the creation of a new 2MB blockchain. This could happen even without consensus, similar to the BCH split. Given the influence of pro-large block entities, this scenario remains plausible.
Given these possibilities, it is highly likely that three distinct chains—BTC, BCH, and S2X—will coexist after November.
A New Approach: Bitcoin Gold (BTG)
Unlike BCH and S2X, which emerged from scaling disagreements, Bitcoin Gold (BTG) introduces a new fork motivation: decentralizing mining power.
Bitcoin mining has become highly centralized, with a majority of hashrate controlled by a few mining pools, many based in a single country. BTG aims to restore “one CPU one vote” by changing the proof-of-work algorithm.
Key features of Bitcoin Gold include:
- Adoption of the Equihash algorithm, which is ASIC-resistant and memory-intensive.
- Implementation of replay protection to ensure user safety.
- A hard fork scheduled for early November.
However, with its code still incomplete shortly before the planned fork, questions about its reliability remain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Bitcoin hard fork?
A hard fork is a radical change to a blockchain's protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid. It requires all nodes to upgrade to the new version. This can result in a split into two separate chains if consensus is not achieved.
How can users protect their assets during a fork?
Users should withdraw coins from exchanges to a private wallet where they control the keys. It’s also essential to avoid making transactions until the network stabilizes and to follow updates from trusted wallets and exchanges.
Will I receive coins from every fork?
If you control your private keys before a fork, you will generally have access to coins on each new chain. However, claiming them may require technical steps, and not all wallets support every fork.
What is replay protection?
Replay protection is a mechanism that prevents transactions from being valid on multiple chains after a fork. Forks without replay protection can pose risks, as transactions might be accidentally duplicated across chains.
How does difficulty adjustment affect mining?
Difficulty adjustment ensures that blocks are mined at a consistent rate. Poorly implemented adjustments—like BCH’s initial EDA—can lead to unstable mining profitability and hashrate fluctuations.
Should I trade forked coins immediately?
It is generally safer to wait until the networks stabilize, trading platforms announce support, and dedicated wallets become available. Rushing to trade can lead to unintended losses due to market volatility or technical errors.
What Should Users Do?
Before the Hard Fork (Before October 25)
If you hold Bitcoin, understand that contentious hard forks involve risks. If you choose to hold, take steps to secure your assets:
- On Exchanges
Check if your exchange supports the forked coins (BTG and S2X) and whether they offer protection measures. If unclear, contact support. Self-Custody with Private Keys
Move your Bitcoin to a wallet where you control the private keys. Options include:- Paper wallets for long-term storage.
- Standard electronic wallets for ease of use.
- Full-node wallets like Bitcoin Core for maximum security.
- Hardware wallets for balanced security and convenience.
👉 Explore secure wallet options
After Bitcoin Gold Fork, Before S2X
BTG includes replay protection, so transacting Bitcoin shouldn’t affect your BTG holdings. However, wait until the network is stable before attempting to access forked coins.
After the S2X Hard Fork
The situation may be chaotic. Different platforms may recognize different chains as “BTC.” Avoid making transactions until the situation clarifies. Use only wallets that explicitly state which chain they support.
Claiming Forked Coins
If you control your private keys, you will likely be able to access BTC, S2X, and BTG. Use dedicated wallets for each chain once they become available. Always move your original coins to a new address before claiming forked coins to avoid replay attacks.
In summary:
Take self-custody of your coins before October 25, avoid transactions until the networks stabilize, and follow official announcements from wallets and exchanges to safely manage your forked assets.