As the year draws to a close, it’s time for reflection and forecasting. Messari, a leading research institution in the crypto space, recently released its comprehensive annual report, The Crypto Theses 2025. The report offers a detailed review of 2024 and insightful predictions for the year ahead, covering everything from macroeconomic influences to emerging crypto trends.
Key takeaways include Bitcoin’s maturation as a global asset class and the continued appeal of meme coins as speculative outlets. Below, we break down the most critical insights and forward-looking statements from the extensive 190-page document.
Macro Environment: Defying Pessimism
Key Developments in 2024
The economic landscape in 2024 defied many pessimistic forecasts. The U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resilience, allowing the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts of 50 and 25 basis points in September and November, respectively. This marked a relatively smooth policy shift.
The S&P 500 rose by approximately 27% throughout the year, ranking among the top 20 annual performances in history and reflecting strong market confidence in a soft landing.
Crypto Market Dynamics
The crypto market faced dual challenges in 2024: traditional market risks and industry-specific hurdles. These included sell-offs by the German government, Mt. Gox token distributions, and ongoing scrutiny of Tether. The market underwent an eight-month consolidation phase before the U.S. election served as a major catalyst.
Predictions for 2025
The macro environment is expected to remain supportive of crypto assets:
- The Federal Reserve has begun loosening the tight policies instituted since 2022 but has not yet entered a full easing cycle. This gradual approach should provide stability.
- Post-election asset volatility has declined significantly. Historically, low volatility tends to beget even lower volatility—a favorable condition for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.
- Regulatory clarity is improving. Even a neutral regulatory stance would represent a significant improvement over the aggressive crackdowns of the past four years. This shift may ease institutional concerns and attract more capital.
- Stablecoin regulation could see bipartisan support, creating opportunities for legislative progress in 2025.
Institutional Adoption: Beyond ETFs
Major Shifts in 2024
Institutional involvement in crypto moved beyond theory in 2024. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs provided both institutional and retail investors with accessible, regulated entry points.
BlackRock’s IBIT set records, becoming the first ETF to reach $3 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 30 days of launch and surpassing $40 billion in about 200 days.
Diverse Institutional Engagement
Institutions expanded their activities beyond ETFs into areas like asset issuance, tokenization, stablecoins, and research. For example, Sky (formerly part of MakerDAO) and BlackRock launched on-chain money market funds. Ondo Finance’s USDY, a tokenized treasury fund, reached approximately $440 million in AUM.
Fintech Integrations
PayPal launched its stablecoin, PYUSD, on Solana in May. Agora, backed by Nick Van Eck, introduced its multi-chain stablecoin, AUSD, which is supported by Van Eck and custodied by State Street.
2025 Outlook
Institutional participation is expected to deepen and broaden. As BlackRock and others continue to position digital assets as a viable, non-correlated investment, ETF inflows should remain steady. More importantly, institutions are exploring innovative applications to reduce costs, enhance transparency, and accelerate payments.
Traditional finance giants like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expanding their blockchain platforms and exploring new product offerings. This indicates a shift from viewing crypto purely as an investment to recognizing its potential as financial infrastructure.
Meme Coins: The Speculative Engine
2024 Market Overview
Meme coins accounted for only 3% of the top 300 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) by market cap but consistently made up 6–7% of trading volume—sometimes climbing to 11%.
The first quarter saw political-themed meme coins like Jeo Boden gain traction. This was followed by TikTok-inspired tokens such as Moodeng and Chill Guy, as well as AI agent concepts like GOAT from Truth Terminal.
Driving Factors
The meme coin boom was fueled not only by trends and user-friendly interfaces but also by two critical conditions:
- Excess capital: As the crypto market appreciated, many traders accumulated significant capital but lacked quality investment opportunities.
- Abundant block space: High-throughput networks like Solana and Base offered low-cost, efficient trading environments.
Solana, in particular, benefited from strong market performance in late 2023 and early 2024, which left users with ample capital.
Evolution of Trading Infrastructure
User-friendly platforms like Pump.fun, Moonshot, and Telegram bots significantly lowered barriers to entry. Moonshot, for instance, enabled payments via Apple Pay, PayPal, or USDC on Solana, bypassing traditional crypto on-ramps. Its intuitive interface attracted a new wave of retail investors.
2025 Predictions
Meme coins are poised for continued growth in 2025 due to:
- Infrastructure support: High-throughput chains like Solana, Base, Injective, Sei, and TON provide ample block space for low-fee trading.
- Improved user experience: Platforms like Moonshot and Pump.fun continue to simplify trading processes.
- Macro relevance: Meme coins serve as speculative outlets, akin to gambling, and may continue to attract users seeking entertainment and profit.
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Funding Landscape: AI Leads the Way
Market Overview
Crypto project funding increased compared to 2023. Although total funding for startups and protocols fell by about 20% (mainly due to an outlier in Q1 2023), several large rounds stood out.
Notable Funding Rounds
- Monad Labs raised $225 million in April, underscoring strong VC interest in infrastructure and Layer-1 projects.
- Story Protocol secured $80 million in a Series B round led by a16z to transform intellectual property into programmable assets.
- Sentient raised $85 million in a round led by Thiel’s Founders Fund to develop an open AGI platform.
- Farcaster and Freechat raised $150 million and $80 million, respectively, highlighting continued investor interest in social applications.
The Rise of AI and DePIN
AI project funding increased by approximately 100% year-over-year, with a 138% rise in funding rounds. DePIN projects saw a 300% increase in funding and a 197% rise in rounds.
Accelerator programs like CSX and Beacon particularly favored AI projects. Investors showed strong interest in the intersection of crypto and AI.
Emerging Investment Themes
Beyond AI and DePIN, several trends gained traction in 2024:
- Decentralized science (DeSci) began attracting attention, with projects like BIO Protocol and AMINOChain securing funding.
- Asia-Pacific VCs showed a preference for gaming protocols, especially those launched on the TON blockchain.
- Funding for NFTs and metaverse projects declined significantly compared to 2021 and 2022.
- Social applications continued to experiment, with projects like Farcaster, DeSo, and BlueSky receiving support despite limited prior success.
User Growth: New Evidence of Adoption
Breaking Records
According to a16z, monthly active crypto addresses reached a historic high of 220 million, mirroring early internet adoption curves. After accounting for users with multiple wallets, estimates suggest 30–60 million genuine monthly active users.
Key Growth Drivers in 2024
- Phantom wallet emerged as Solana’s most popular wallet, briefly ranking above WhatsApp and Instagram in the iOS App Store.
- Stablecoin adoption grew in emerging markets like Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Platforms like Yellow Card, Bitso, and Kuna facilitated this through stablecoin exchange and payment APIs.
- Telegram Mini-Apps exploded in popularity: Notcoin gained over 2.5 million holders, while Hamster Kombat attracted 200 million users and 35 million YouTube subscribers.
- Polymarket saw practical use during the election season, adding nearly 1 million accounts and becoming the second-most-downloaded iOS news app.
- Base and Hyperliquid helped centralize exchange (CEX) users migrate on-chain. Base L2 offered free transfers from Coinbase, while Hyperliquid provided a CEX-like trading experience for perpetual contracts.
2025 Outlook
Crypto ecosystems are already experiencing mass adoption. User growth is shifting from sporadic, noise-driven influxes to organic discovery and sustained engagement through various applications.
Meme coins, consumer apps (e.g., Phantom and Telegram), prediction markets, and growing on-chain utility will contribute to compound growth. The next critical step is improving blockchain navigation for retail users through innovations like chain abstraction and aggregated front-ends.
Bitcoin: A Strong 2024, A Mature 2025
Key Developments in 2024
Bitcoin started the year at $40,000, reached a new high of $75,000 after ETF approvals in Q1, and broke through $100,000 following Trump’s election victory. Its market dominance rose to approximately 55%.
ETF issuers accumulated over 1.1 million BTC, with BlackRock and Grayscale holding 45% and 19%, respectively. After initial approval, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows only in April. BlackRock’s IBIT consistently led inflows, with about $8 billion in November alone.
MicroStrategy continued its aggressive accumulation strategy, purchasing $2.1 billion worth of Bitcoin in early December. The company now holds roughly 420,000 BTC, trailing only Binance, Satoshi Nakamoto, and ETF issuers.
Other public companies like Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms, and Semler Scientific began accumulating BTC reserves, inspired by MicroStrategy’s strategy.
2024 was also a halving year, reducing the number of natural sellers over time.
Network Innovations
Ordinals and Runes
Ordinals introduced NFT-like functionality to Bitcoin, while Runes launched as a new token standard similar to Ethereum’s ERC-20. Some Runes projects reached nine-figure valuations, signaling market recognition for Bitcoin’s ecosystem expansion.
Programmability and Staking
BitVM introduced possibilities for arbitrary computation on Bitcoin. Over 40 Layer-2 projects launched on testnet or mainnet, with CORE, Bitlayer, Rootstock, and Merlin Chain leading in total value locked (TVL).
Babylon launched as Bitcoin’s first staking protocol in Q3, with its initial 1,000 BTC staking capacity filled within six blocks. Liquid staking tokens like Lombard’s LBTC also emerged.
2025 Predictions
Bitcoin ETF inflows have far exceeded expectations. Over time, institutional activity will likely become the primary driver of daily BTC price movements.
ETFs enable spot Bitcoin purchases without leverage. Consistent institutional inflows should reduce reflexive, leverage-driven volatility, helping Bitcoin mature as an asset class.
ETF approvals may have positioned Bitcoin in the early-middle stages of becoming the world’s leading store of value. In November, Bitcoin surpassed silver to become the eighth-most-valuable asset globally, partly due to ETF inflows. Year-end trends suggest continued growth in 2025, especially if Grayscale’s GBTC shifts to positive net flow.
The Trump administration has expressed pro-crypto sentiments, making Bitcoin-related promises during the campaign. While Bitcoin repriced quickly after the election, the government must still deliver on some of its proposals.
Although unlikely, a federal strategic Bitcoin reserve would be particularly impactful. The market is cautiously optimistic about the Trump administration. If it implements higher-probability action items, it could build enough goodwill to sustain positive momentum.
Post-election, clear and positive crypto reforms have become a significant focus across government branches. Bipartisan support appears imminent, which would remove regulatory uncertainty for Bitcoin.
For Runes and Ordinals, the initial frenzy has settled, creating attractive opportunities for 2025.
Magic Eden is driving improvements in Bitcoin UI/UX and could emerge as a clear winner if Bitcoin’s ecosystem takes off.
Bitcoin’s programmability and BTC staking are still nascent. Early TVL growth does not yet indicate substantial demand. Consumers largely prefer the performance of networks like Solana and Base. If this trend continues, Bitcoin builders face an uphill battle.
Ethereum: Identity Crisis and Future Opportunities
2024 Performance Overview
Ethereum had an eventful year. As the second-largest crypto asset, it competed with Bitcoin for the hard money narrative while fending off challenges from newer chains like Solana. Key developments include:
- Underperformance relative to other major crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Solana.
- Continued growth in Layer-2 ecosystems but declining mainnet activity.
- ETH experienced persistent inflation instead of the expected deflation.
- ETF approvals initially attracted limited inflows but recently accelerated.
- L2 scalability increased 15-fold, with cumulative throughput reaching ~200 TPS.
- Base’s rapid growth sparked discussions that “Ethereum’s future is Coinbase,” but L2 fragmentation harmed user and developer experiences.
2025 Outlook
L2s Outperform L1s
Layer-2 designs allow more flexible execution environments than native Layer-1s. High-throughput L2s like MegaETH theoretically exceed the capacity of fast L1s. App-specific chains can enable better trade-offs, such as customized transaction prioritization.
Two Viable Value Capture Models
Ethereum faces two potential paths for value capture:
- Fee-agnostic route: Current fees mainly come from speculative activity, raising sustainability concerns. Token valuation should be based on “security demand” rather than fees. The largest applications create the highest security demand, driving native asset value.
- Enhanced fee capture: Native rollups could increase mainnet value capture by raising data availability fees. Expanding the base layer to compete with generic EVM Layer-2s is another option.
New Opportunities for the Ecosystem
A super rollup, an interconnected based-rollup network, or high fee burns could pave the way for success. Recapturing market share in crypto-native speculation would reignite institutional interest.
Ethereum’s decentralized nature means any participant could catalyze this transition.
Solana: From Contender to Mainstream Ecosystem
Key Achievements in 2024
Solana evolved from “post-FTX recovery” to a确定性突破. Major accomplishments include:
- Transforming the “Bitcoin and Ethereum duopoly” into a “triopoly.”
- Significantly improved network stability, with only one five-hour outage all year.
- DeFi total value locked (TVL) grew from $1.5 billion to over $9 billion.
- Stablecoin issuance increased from $1.8 billion to nearly $5 billion.
- Positioning itself as a hub for speculation, especially meme coin trading. Seamless wallet experiences and platforms like Pump.fun and Moonshot made token issuance and trading easier than ever.
- On-chain activity occasionally pushed Solana’s fees above Ethereum’s, highlighting accelerating momentum and retail appeal.
2025 Outlook
Ecosystem Expansion
Expect applications beyond speculation. MetaDAO’s prediction market is particularly promising. The emerging Solana L2 ecosystem will be watched to see if it can compete effectively with Ethereum counterparts.
AI trends are groundbreaking. ai16z has become one of the most trending repositories on GitHub. Solana not only embraces AI x Crypto but leads the trend.
Traditional Finance Interest
Amid the ETF trend, investors may seek exposure to the “tech stocks” of crypto, with Solana as a frontrunner. A spot Solana ETF seems inevitable within the next year or two, creating perfect conditions for an explosive second act.
Increased Competition
A new generation of Layer-1 blockchains like Monad, Berachain, and Sonic is expected next year. revived DeFi, AI agents, and consumer applications—led by platforms like Base and numerous new L2s—will also intensify competition.
Other L1s and Infrastructure: 2025 Outlook
- Monad and Sonic are set to launch as general-purpose, high-throughput, “monolithic” L1s. Both have raised substantial funds ($225 million for Monad; ~$250 million in FTM tokens for Sonic) to attract developers.
- Berachain is one of the most interesting L1 experiments. After raising $142 million in Series A and B rounds, over 270 projects have committed to supporting the network, indicating strong developer interest.
- Celestia’s Lazybridging proposal and Avail’s Nexus ZK proof verification layer could establish meaningful network effects for modular L1s in the second half of 2025.
- If successful, Unichain could inspire a wave of application-specific or domain-specific L2s to enhance value accumulation and generate more revenue for token holders.
- Alternative virtual machines (mainly Solana and Move VM) will continue gaining attention.
- Avalanche, with its strong business development in institutional and gaming sectors, is poised for another robust year.
- Cosmos’s outlook for 2025 remains uncertain.
- Initia will launch as an L1 supporting 5–10 application-specific, interoperable L2s. This strategic positioning could help Initia lead the next wave of app-chain advancements.
- In interoperability, watch projects like Across, Espresso, and Omni Network.
- In zero-knowledge (ZK) technology, monitor Polygon’s AggLayer. By 2025, nearly all infrastructure protocols are expected to incorporate ZK tech.
- The line between applications and infrastructure is blurring. Modular projects like Celestia, EigenDA, and Avail may benefit from this trend.
DeFi: 2025 Outlook
- Base and Solana as valuable real estate: Solana and Base DEXs are expected to continue gaining market share over DEXs on other chains.
- Vertical integration vs. composability: Protocols like Hyperliquid and Uniswap are moving toward owning their infrastructure to configure network features that benefit their applications.
- Prediction markets: Trading volumes may decline compared to election-driven peaks. To succeed, protocols must offer relevant markets for continuous speculation and incentivize market makers.
- Real-world assets (RWA): Tokenized treasuries may face headwinds as interest rates fall. Idle on-chain capital could attract more interest, shifting focus from importing traditional financial assets to exporting on-chain opportunities. Regardless of macroeconomic conditions, RWAs have growth potential and can diversify on-chain assets.
- Points programs: Points will remain central to protocols aiming to bootstrap user adoption through token distributions. In 2025, protocols may refine their points programs while nurturing early adopter communities.
- Yield trading protocols: Platforms like Pendle could see further growth driven by new yield farming opportunities and the speculative appeal of points-based incentives.
AI x Crypto: 2025 Outlook
Bittensor and Dynamic TAO: The New AI Casino
Each existing subnet (and future subnets) will have its own token, inherently linked to Bittensor’s native TAO token. The competition in AI is a competition for talent, and Bittensor has a unique angle to attract it—subnets show early signs of producing high-quality research.
If Bittensor unexpectedly becomes a hub for cutting-edge AI research in crypto, don’t be surprised. It’s not just a speculative “AI coin casino” but a platform capable of attracting serious AI developers.
Decentralized Model Training: A Stumbling Block and a Pivot
Decentralized networks are unlikely to compete with giants like OpenAI and Google in training large-scale foundation models. Instead, they may focus on fine-tuning smaller, specialized models.
Expect more experimentation with small and specialized models designed for specific tasks in 2025.
AI Agents and Meme Coins: Ongoing Experiments
Most AI agents will likely prefer to operate on-chain. Growing token valuations can fund continuous AI agent development and boost social media engagement.
Talent density will increase as more engineers focus on this category. As AI agent key opinion leaders (KOLs) actively vie for attention on social media, they may outperform “static” meme coins.
As the debate around open vs. closed AI continues, crypto is expected to claim a growing share of the conversation.
DePIN: 2025 Outlook
- Energy DePINs are projected to build $50–150 million in supply-side infrastructure while generating up to $50 million in demand-side sales.
- In wireless, Helium Mobile is preparing for further growth, and DAWN will launch its mainnet in 2025, solidifying this vertical as a breakthrough DePIN use case.
- Industry revenue is forecast to reach eight or low nine figures.
- Real-time kinematic (RTK) networks like GEODNET are expected to expand supply-side coverage to 90–100% of high-value areas in the EU and North America by the end of 2025. Annual revenue could exceed $10 million.
- The weather data collection vertical is anticipated to make significant strides.
- Integration and partnerships between energy and mobility DePINs could enhance grid integration and energy harvesting data from electric vehicle batteries.
- File storage DePINs may generate $15–50 million in revenue across the sub-industry.
- Data collection DePINs, spurred by projects like Grass, will increase in 2025.
Consumer Applications: 2025 Outlook
- Airdrop farming will continue as a primary method to attract users. “Paid airdrops” may become standard in 2025.
- Mobile applications will be a defining trend.
- Solana is expected to maintain its lead in meme coin trading activity.
- Ordinals will remain a category of interest. Potential catalysts include CEX listings, airdrop-driven wealth effects, and growing adoption in Asian markets.
CeFi: 2025 Outlook
- As the bull market continues and funding rates remain high, Ethena’s supply will likely expand.
- Yield-bearing stablecoins are unlikely to capture significant market share from Tether soon.
- Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, manages Tether’s assets. The U.S. may reverse its hostile stance toward Tether.
- True innovation may occur behind the scenes at orchestrating companies like Bridge. Stablecoin APIs (e.g., those offered by Yellow Card) will enhance the ability of small businesses to accept stablecoin payments globally.
- Exchanges will continue blending on- and off-chain services. Coinbase and Kraken aim to onboard as many users as possible to their L2s in 2025 and may offer incentives to do so.
- The new administration may allow exchanges to be more lenient with listing decisions. As Binance, Bybit, and Coinbase race to list the most popular crypto assets, this trend could reach a fever pitch in 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main focus of Messari’s 2025 crypto report?
The report provides a comprehensive analysis of trends from 2024 and predictions for 2025, covering macroeconomics, institutional adoption, meme coins, AI integration, and infrastructure developments. It emphasizes Bitcoin’s maturation and the persistent appeal of speculative assets.
How did institutional involvement in crypto change in 2024?
Institutional engagement moved beyond theoretical interest with the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Major firms like BlackRock saw record inflows, and traditional financial institutions expanded into tokenization, stablecoins, and blockchain-based infrastructure.
Why are meme coins expected to remain popular in 2025?
Meme coins thrive due to excess capital, low transaction costs on high-throughput chains, and user-friendly trading platforms. Their speculative nature aligns with current macroeconomic conditions, attracting retail investors seeking high-risk, high-reward opportunities.
What role will AI play in the crypto space in 2025?
AI is set to intersect with crypto through decentralized model training, AI agent experimentation, and platforms like Bittensor. Expect increased funding and research into specialized AI models and on-chain agent applications.
How might regulatory changes impact crypto in 2025?
The new U.S. administration has expressed pro-crypto sentiments, potentially leading to clearer regulations and bipartisan support. This could reduce uncertainty and encourage more institutional investment.
What are the key challenges for Ethereum in 2025?
Ethereum faces competition from Solana and other L1s, declining mainnet activity, and the need to improve value capture. Its success may depend on L2 scalability, developer engagement, and reclaiming its role in crypto-native speculation.